33: Baseball's Not so Magical Number [J. Mark English]

For most people, your thirties are supposed to be the age when you are "thirty, flirty, and thriving". In baseball, the early part of this decade showed that the same was true on the diamond. Think of players like Barry Bonds who excelled well into their twilight ages.

However, 'normalcy' (decline) seems to have crept up on certain players whom have reached the age of 33. Bill James breaks this all down in a conversation with Joe Posnanski from Sports Illustrated:

Today's topic is actually an age -- 33 years old. Many years ago, Stan Musial set a baseball player's prime from age 28 to 32. And even though this isn't 100 percent true*, there is truth in it. For many good-to-great players, 33 is the age when they begin to grow old. Maybe the bat slows a touch. Maybe nagging injuries nag more. Maybe the legs lose a little bit of their spring. Maybe the shoulder aches when they try to throw home....

....This is true this year, just like it is true every year: Alex Rodriguez, of course, is 33 years old and he in struggling in many ways. David Ortiz is 33 years old and he is struggling in just about every way (though he has been coming on the last couple of weeks). Alfonso Soriano, Placido Polanco, Edgar Renteria and Eric Byrnes are all 33 years old and all are having difficult years for one reason or another. Lance Berkman's batting average is way down. Carlos Guillen has been hurt all year. And so on....

...Joe: Let's start with Royals outfielder Jose Guillen. I've spent much of this year watching him; Guillen has never been a GREAT player, but he has been a good player, in large part I think because of an unusually quick bat. In 2007 he hit .290/.353/.460. In 2008 he had a mostly lousy year, but he had about a five- or six-week stretch where he hit the ball about as hard as anyone I've ever seen -- he hit .390 and slugged .662 from May 7 through June 17, and many of his outs were smashes.

Well, he's 33 years old this year, and he seems in better shape, he seems more focused, he seems more determined than ever not to be a distraction for the team. But, again, he's 33. And you can see changes: His bat no longer seems as quick. This shows up in different ways ... he seems to be behind the fastball. He's seems to be taking more pitches. He seems to struggle against those third and fourth starters he once loved facing.

Bill: Historically, hitters' bats die at age 33 ... not always, of course, but there is quite significantly more loss in batting ability at age 33 than at any other age. Let me give you a few for-instances from history ... and obviously, I'm just hitting a few highlights; there are many others involving players with less recognizable names.

1) Hall of Famer Hack Wilson
1932, age 32: .297, 23 homers, 123 RBIs
1933, age 33: .267, 9 homers, 54 RBIs

2) Hall of Famer Al Simmons
1934, age 32: .344, 18 homers, 104 RBIs
1935, age 33: .267, 16 homers, 79 RBIs

3) Hall of Famer Heinie Manush
1934, age 32: .349, 11 homers, 89 RBIs
1935, age 33: .273, 4 homers, 56 RBIs

4) Hall of Famer Tony Lazzeri
1936, age 32: .287, 14 homers, 109 RBIs
1937, age 33: .244, 14 homers, 70 RBIs

5) Hall of Famer Bill Dickey
1939, age 32: .302, 24 homers, 105 RBIs
1940, age 33: .247, 9 homers, 54 RBIs

6) Walker Cooper
1947, age 32: .305, 35 homers, 122 RBIs
1948, age 33: .266, 16 homers, 54 RBIs

7) Hall of Famer Bobby Doerr
1950, age 32: .294, 27 homers, 120 RBIs
1951, age 33: .289, 13 homers, 73 RBIs

8) Gus Zernial
1955, age 32: .254, 30 homers, 84 RBIs
1956, age 33: .224, 16 homers, 44 RBIs

9) Del Ennis, perpetual 100-RBI guy
1956, age 32: .286, 24 homers, 105 RBIs
1957, age 33: .261, 3 homers, 47 RBIs

10) Hall of Famer, Duke Snider
1959, age 32: .308, 23 homers, 88 RBIs
1960, age 33: .243, 14 homers, 36 RBIs

11) Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle
1964, age 32: .303, 35 homers, 111 RBIs
1965, age 33: .255, 19 homers, 46 RBIs

12) Bill White, slugging first baseman, later National League president
1966, age 32: .276, 22 homers, 103 RBIs
1967, age 33: .250, 8 homers, 33 RBIs

13) Rocky Colavito
1966, age 32: .238, 30 homers, 72 RBIs
1967, age 33: .231, 8 homers, 50 RBIs

14) Hall of Famer Al Kaline
1967, age 32: .308, 25 homers, 78 RBIs
1968, age 33: .287, 10 homers, 53 RBIs

15) Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda
1970, age 32: .305, 34 homers, 111 RBIs
1971, age 33: .276, 14 homers, 44 RBIs

16) Hall of Famer Willie McCovey
1970, age 32: .289, 39 homers, 126 RBIs
1971, age 33: .277, 18 homers, 70 RBIs

17) Dick Allen
1974, age 32: .301, 32 homers, 88 RBIs
1975, age 33: .233, 12 homers, 62 RBIs

18) Hall of Famer George Brett
1985, age 32: .335, 30 homers, 112 RBIs
1986, age 33: .290, 16 homers, 73 RBIs

19) Hall of Famer Eddie Murray
1988, age 32: .284, 28 homers, 84 RBIs
1989, age 33: .247, 20 homers, 88 RBIs

20) Amos Otis
1979, age 32: .295, 18 homers, 90 RBIs
1980, age 33: .251, 10 homers, 53 RBIs

21) George Foster
1981, age 32: .295, 22 homers, 90 RBIs in a strike-shortened season of 108 games
1982, age 33: .247, 13 homers, 70 RBIs in a full season of 151 games

22) Andre Thornton
1982, age 32: .273, 32 homers, 116 RBIs
1983, age 33: .281, 17 homers, 77 RBIs

23) Greg Luzinski
1983, age 32: .255, 32 homers, 95 RBIs
1984, age 33: .238, 13 homers, 58 RBIs

24) Buddy Bell
1984, age 32: .315, 11 homers, 83 RBIs
1985, age 33: .229, 10 homers, 68 RBIs

25) Alan Trammell
1990, age 32: .308, 14 homers, 89 RBIs
1991, age 33: .248, 9 homers, 55 RBIs

Joe: This amazes me... you know from 1983 to 1990, Alan Trammell put up a 124 OPS+. Over those same eight years, Cal Ripken Jr. put up an OPS+ of ... yes, 124. I personally believe Trammell is a Hall of Famer, but I don't think he will get elected and the reason seems to be that he never played a full season after age 32.

Bill: Maturity in a player is the development of talents; not the development of NEW talents, but the development of those talents that the player has always possessed.

Aging is a narrowing of talents, and the narrowing of talents begins long before the player reaches the major leagues. Players, as they age, don't run as well, don't throw as well. They continue to develop those talents that they have, but the range of talents continues to narrow. What I'm trying to get to ... I don't think that "maturing" as a player is one thing and "aging" is a different thing. I think it is one continuous process, that helps the player up to some point, and hurts him beyond that point.

Joe: You will hear players say, all the time, "I wish I knew then what I know now." There's no doubt that David Ortiz is a smarter hitter now than he ever was. No question that Alex Rodriguez knows more about how pitchers are trying to get him out now. No question that Lance Berkman knows more about the game than he did at 26 when he mashed 42 homers and drove in 128 runs.

That's the cruelty of 33 for so many players ... and every player eventually hits that age. The brain is sharper than ever, but the body can't quite get them there.

Bill: It's like baking bread, or cooking an omelet. The baking of the bread helps the bread up to a point, and then, if you leave the bread in the oven beyond that point, the same things continue to happen, only they don't HELP the bread any more; they begin to ruin the bread.

Eight more players:

26) George Bell
1992, age 32: .255, 25 homers, 112 RBIs
1993, age 33 .217, 13 homers, 64 RBIs

27) Cecil Fielder
1996, age 32: .252., 39 homers, 117 RBIs
1997, age 33: .260, 13 homers, 61 RBIs

28) Albert Belle
1999, age 32: .297, 37 homers, 117 RBIs
2000, age 33: .281, 23 homers, 103 RBIs

29) Brian Jordan
1999, age 32: .283, 23 homers, 115 RBIs
2000, age 33: .264, 17 homers, 77 RBIs

30) Bill Mueller
2003, age 32: .326 (led American League), 19 homers, 83 RBIs
2004, age 33: .283, 12 homers, 57 RBIs

31) Jason Giambi
2003, age 32: .250, 41 homers, 107 RBIs
2004, age 33: .208, 12 homers, 40 RBIs

32) Cliff Floyd
2005, age 32: .273, 34 homers, 98 RBIs
2006, age 33 .244, 11 homers, 44 RBIs

33) Ivan Rodriguez
2004, age 32: .334, 19 homers, 86 RBIs
2005, age 33: .276, 14 homers, 50 RBIs

The human body is like bread that won't stop baking. Age 33 is about the age at which you KNOW the bread is getting over-done and you wish that you could turn off the oven, but you just can't.