Thursday, July 16, 2009

Mets Second Half Chances [David Stefanini]

The Mets begin the second half of the season tonight against the Atlanta Braves. Since the Phillies won the NL East last season with 92 wins I figured the Mets would need to get to 93 to make the playoffs this year. This means they need to find 51 wins out of their final 75 games. I looked at their schedule and game up with a list of the teams they will play and how many games against them. Here is that list:

ATL – 13

WSH – 9

HOU – 6

COL – 7

ARI – 7

STL – 2

SD – 4

SF – 4

PHI – 8

FLA – 9

CHC – 6

With seeing this list do the Mets have a real shot at making the playoffs or should they look to become sellers in this market?

They play 13 games against the Atlanta Braves who always give the Mets trouble. 7 games are on the road and 6 games are at home. They Mets are a better team than the Braves and should be able to take 8 out of 13 against them. This leaves them 43 wins short.

Then we go to the Nationals who are the worst team in the league. The Mets should easily take 7 out of the 9. If they don't take advantagae of the Nationals they will not have a chance at making the playoffs. They are now 36 wins short.

Houston is a .500 team at 44 and 44, so by their own record we'll give the Mets half of those games, 3. 33 more wins to go.

Colorado is a very good team sitting 6 games above .500. Right now they are better than the Mets so we have to assume only 3 wins for the Mets. 30 wins left.

Arizona is a horrible team and the Mets should only lose to Dan Haren. Let's assume Haren pitches one game and 'Zona steals another win, this still gives the Mets 5 wins leaving them only 25 short.

The Cardinals are next on the list and only have a 2 game series at Citi. Let's assume it's a split, 24 wins left.

San Diego is a bad team but I don't see the Mets being comnpleting any 4 game sweeps, therefore only 3 wins in this series. 21 left.

San Francisco is a very strong team with a lot of potential. Maybe they fall off later this season, maybe they continue this strong run. Right now they are better than the Mets and the only win here is when Santana pitches, 1 win for the Mets, 20 left.

Obviously the 8 most important games left for the Mets are against the Phillies. They are a strong team who the Mets always play well. These teams play great games which the Mets always have a lead late and the Phillies find a way to pull it out. Since these teams always play each other so closely it would be unfair to either team to assume a victory out of the eight games, so the Mets get 4 more wins leaving them 16 short.

The Marlins have been a thorn in the side of the Mets but this season the Mets should be able to beat them. The Marlins are streaky and it depends when you catch them. Mets are given 6 wins here, leaving them 10 games short.

There are only 6 games left against the Cubs and at this point we can only assume a split against the Cubs, leaving the Mets 7 games short of 93 wins.

Is my analyze accurate, probably not, but I don't think it is to far off give or take a few games in certain series. I tried to be as fair as possible in doing this. So where do the Mets pick up these 7 wins? Maybe win all 9 against the Nats, win some more against the Giants and do more than just split against the Phils. Are the Mets really capable of doing this? I don't think so. I hope I am wrong but how I look at it is exactly like this. Met's falling roughly 7 games short of winning the division.

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