Super Bowl XLI: Can the Colts Upset the Bears? [J. Mark English]

Battle Red Blog sums a great piece by Allen St. John from the Wall Street Journal best:

• 86% of the last 22 Super Bowls have been won by the team who gave up fewer points in the regular season. The Bears gave up 105 points less than the Colts did.

• No team has ever given up as many points as the Colts did this season (360) and won the Super Bowl.

• The Bears scored exactly as many points as the Colts did this season (427).

• Using the Pythagorean Wins theorem, which has correctly predicted the winner of 18 of the last 22 Super Bowls, the Bears are the favorite. From a points scored:points allowed perspective, the Bears "earned" 12.36 regular season wins by outscoring their opponents by 172 points, while the Colts "earned" only 9.59 wins by outscoring their opponents by only 67 points. As St. John points out, no team has ever won a Super Bowl with so few P-wins.