Monday, August 06, 2007

Tom Glavine, Baseball's Last 300 Game Winner? [David Stefanini]

On Sunday, Tom Glavine became the 23rd player in Major League Baseball history to win 300 career games; and only the 5th lefty to do so. He pitched 6.1 innings, allowing just 2 runs, 6 hits, and a walk. Glavine not only pitched a magnificent game, but he also had a single which got the Mets started, scoring the first run of the ballgame.
Everything about Tom Glavine we know: he is a first ballot Hall of Famer, 300 game winner, Cy Young Award winner, 20-game winner, and has a World Series Ring. What we do not know is when or if we will ever see this magnificent milestone reached ever again.
Lets start out by looking down the list of who is close to this milestone. The closest man is Randy Johnson who has 284 career wins. He is out for the year with back surgery, and may never pitch again. He has to be considered unlikely to get to 300 wins. Next on the list is Mike Mussina, who is at win total 246. For the Moose to win 54 more games he has to start taking some serious steroids. Mussina has trouble winning games for the Yankees. He can not get to 300 wins. After him its David Wells and Jamie Moyer, who are at wins 235 and 225 respectively. Wells and Moyer are 44 years of age and do not have enough time to get to 300.
I can go on and on, but the most likely person, who has at least 200 career wins, to get to this milestone is Pedro Martinez. He is 38 years old and has 206 career wins. If he comes back healthy and the Pedro of old, he may be able to get around 20 wins for the next few seasons, putting him in contention for 300. Now I said Pedro is most likely to get to 300; but it is very unlikely that he will do so. So out of all the pitchers, 11, who have 200 career wins or higher right now non of them will likely get to this milestone.
Now we get into pitchers who have less than 200 wins. Andy Pettitte has 193, but he won't win another 107 games. The person, or people, who have the best chance of getting to 300 are C.C Sabathia and Johan Santana. Sabathia has 96 wins and Santana has 89 wins. Those two aren't even 30 years old yet and are already closing in on 100 wins. Sabathia is 26 years old while Santana is 28. If Santana gets traded, or signs, with a team that can score some runs, he will have the best chance to get to 300 wins.
So there it is folks. We are going to have to wait at least 10-15 years to see another 300 game winner. Lets enjoy this moment while it lasts.

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